- An identifier for each observation. Automatically assigned. Not necessarily consecutive. - The predicted percentage difference between closing prices of the last trading days in two months, collected every wave. - The confidence in the prediction for the next month, collected every wave. - The time between the first and last change of the input field for the prediction, collected every wave. - Indicator for the window / tab losing focus while on the prediction screen, collected every wave. - Prediction for the month before last, collected every wave. - The confidence in the prediction for the prediction for the month before last - The actual percentage change for the month before last. - Prediction for the month prior. - The confidence in the prediction for the prediction for the month prior - The actual percentage change for the month prior. - The participant's estimate of the average prediction across all participants - The time between the first and last change of the input field for the meta prediction, collected every wave. - Indicator for the window / tab losing focus while on the meta prediction screen, collected every wave. - The emotional engagement of the subject can be of high interest to her predictions. If she cares about the accuracy of her predictions, she likely adjusts more carefully her monthly responses to the data than otherwise. This emotional engagement probably differs across the different topics, in accordance with the individual interest. There is a psychological literature (e.g., https://doi.org/10.1177/1534484312461635) relating personal engagement and job performance. - Guess of the number of M&Ms in a jar shown to participants (with jar size measurements provided). There were 460 M&Ms in the jar before we got hungry. - Gather a rough idea of how engaged the subjects are with each of the 4 questions domains. Correct: 4 - Fossil fuel combustion - Gather a rough idea of how engaged the subjects are with each of the 4 questions domains. Correct: 4 - Hedge Funds - Gather a rough idea of how engaged the subjects are with each of the 4 questions domains. Correct: 2 - John F. Kennedy - Gather a rough idea of how engaged the subjects are with each of the 4 questions domains. Correct: 1 - Los Angeles Dodgers - Participants have to solve 5 single choice questions, regarding their knwoledge with respect to: Compounding, Inflation, Diversification, Mortgage, and Bond Pricing. Anderson, Anders, Forest Baker, and David T. Robinson. 'Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy.' Journal of financial economics 126.2 (2017): 383-398. Correct: 1 - More than $102 - Participants have to solve 5 single choice questions, regarding their knowledge with respect to: Compounding, Inflation, Diversification, Mortgage, and Bond Pricing. Anderson, Anders, Forest Baker, and David T. Robinson. 'Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy.' Journal of financial economics 126.2 (2017): 383-398. Correct: 3 - less - Participants have to solve 5 single choice questions, regarding their knowledge with respect to: Compounding, Inflation, Diversification, Mortgage, and Bond Pricing. Anderson, Anders, Forest Baker, and David T. Robinson. 'Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy.' Journal of financial economics 126.2 (2017): 383-398. Correct: 2 - The price falls - Participants have to solve 5 single choice questions, regarding their knowledge with respect to: Compounding, Inflation, Diversification, Mortgage, and Bond Pricing. Anderson, Anders, Forest Baker, and David T. Robinson. 'Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy.' Journal of financial economics 126.2 (2017): 383-398. Correct: 1 - True - Participants have to solve 5 single choice questions, regarding their knowledge with respect to: Compounding, Inflation, Diversification, Mortgage, and Bond Pricing. Anderson, Anders, Forest Baker, and David T. Robinson. 'Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy.' Journal of financial economics 126.2 (2017): 383-398. Correct: 2 - False - Participants have to solve 5 single choice questions, regarding their knowledge with respect to: Compounding, Inflation, Diversification, Mortgage, and Bond Pricing. Anderson, Anders, Forest Baker, and David T. Robinson. 'Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy.' Journal of financial economics 126.2 (2017): 383-398. Share of correctly answered questions. - Three questions on math skills taken from Eckel & Füllbrunn 2015. Correct: 3 - Three questions on math skills taken from Eckel & Füllbrunn 2015. Correct: 1200 - Three questions on math skills taken from Eckel & Füllbrunn 2015. Correct: 400 - Three questions on math skills taken from Eckel & Füllbrunn 2015. Share of correctly answered questions. - The standard cognitive reflection test has been used widely and the solutions are readily available online. Thus, we propose to use the extended version, which has also been validated in the literature. Correct: 4 days - The standard cognitive reflection test has been used widely and the solutions are readily available online. Thus, we propose to use the extended version, which has also been validated in the literature. Correct: 29 Students - The standard cognitive reflection test has been used widely and the solutions are readily available online. Thus, we propose to use the extended version, which has also been validated in the literature. Correct: $20 - The standard cognitive reflection test has been used widely and the solutions are readily available online. Thus, we propose to use the extended version, which has also been validated in the literature. Correct 3 - has lost money - The standard cognitive reflection test has been used widely and the solutions are readily available online. Thus, we propose to use the extended version, which has also been validated in the literature. Share of correctly answered questions. - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17983306/ - Average score taking reversed scoring of some items into account - https://doi.org/10.1186/s42409-021-00027-6 - Lawson, Larrick and Soll (2023), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4558486 - https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672231154886 - Average score taking reversed scoring of some items into account. Questions 1 to 6 - Average score taking reversed scoring of some items into account, Questions 7 to 12 - Average score taking reversed scoring of some items into account. Questions 13-18. - Average score taking reversed scoring of some items into account. Questions 19-24. - Pacini, R., & Epstein, S. (1999). The relation of rational and experiential information processing styles to personality, basic beliefs, and the ratio-bias phenomenon. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76(6), 972-987. - Carleton, R. N., Norton, M. P. J., & Asmundson, G. J. (2007). Fearing the unknown: A short version of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale. Journal of anxiety disorders, 21(1), 105-117 - Carleton, R. N., Norton, M. P. J., & Asmundson, G. J. (2007). Fearing the unknown: A short version of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale. Journal of anxiety disorders, 21(1), 105-117. Average score. - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271289 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271289 Average of questions 1 and 2 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271289 Average of questions 3 and 4. - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BFsMLz_ZbOC_Aax3D4oNCn1xxTdoQuuk5WYgCozoWo/edit?usp=sharing - https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/9/3/522/2298422 Dohmen et al., JEEA, 2012 'Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, and Behavioral Consequences' - Falk, A., Becker, A., Dohmen, T., Huffman, D., & Sunde, U. (2023). The preference survey module: A validated instrument for measuring risk, time, and social preferences. Management Science, 69(4), 1935-1950. - Self-reported knowledge of climate topics. - Self-reported knowledge of economics topics. - Self-reported knowledge of politics topics. - Self-reported knowledge of sports topics. - Self-reported experience with climate topics. - Self-reported experience with exonomics topics. - Self-reported experience with politics topics. - Self-reported experience with sports topics. - In addition to knowledge and experience with each topic, it would be helpful to have a measure of participants' level of engagement in activities that involve predicting outcomes in each topic. - Assets owned: Wishful thinking about financial outcomes - Indicator for the participant reporting to be a fan of the Yankees - Indicator for the participant reporting to be a fan of the Dodgers - Indicator for the participant reporting to be a fan of the Cubs - Indicator for the participant reporting to be a fan of the Astros - Indicator for the participant reporting not to be a fan of any of the four sports teams - Participants are asked about the duration of their daily media consumption. Our questions will provide information on their preferred type of media and content. Frequency scales version - Vrage et al. (2015) created the Self Perceived Media Literacy scale to add a construct to the concept of Media Literacy developed by Ashley et al. (2013) that specifically aims to measure a person's belief in its ability to competently interpret and interact with media. https://doi.org/10.1177/1098048219841280 - Average of the responses given to the SPML items, taking reverse coding into account. - Adler, N. E., Epel, E. S., Castellazzo, G., & Ickovics, J. R. (2000). Relationship of subjective and objective social status with psychological and physiological functioning: Preliminary data in healthy, White women. Health Psychology, 19(6), 586-592 - Indicator for the attention check being passed, collected every wave. - Attention check score for the content of the study. Scoring: -1 for each incorrect response and +1 for each correct response. - Indicator for the participant reporting to have looked up climate information. - Indicator for the participant reporting to have looked up finance information. - Indicator for the participant reporting to have looked up politics information. - Indicator for the participant reporting to have looked up sports information. - Indicator for the participant reporting not to have looked up any information. - Indicator for the participant reporting to have felt time pressure. - Age in years at time of data collection, collected once. - Gender, collected once. - Highest degree obtained, collected once. - A multiple-choice questions (more than one answer is allowed). We suggest this item to find out if the participants have some in-depth familiarity in one or more topics due to their professional background. - Annual income before taxes, collected once. - US State of residence, collected once. - First three digits of zip code - Race of the predictor, collected once. - Political party affiliation, collected once. - Self-placement on the liberal-conservative scale, collected once. - Current status, collected once. - Time spent on the page.