We actually asked people this question before and **after** treatment (at the very start and end of the survey) ![[20240924175429.png]] # pre vs post treatment candidate choice ```r # no. of harris/trump votes pre/post treatment condition harris_vote1 harris_vote2 trump_vote1 trump_vote2 <fctr> <int> <int> <int> <int> 1: persuadeHarris 570 580 477 461 2: persuadeTrump 565 547 428 431 condition topic harris_vote1 harris_vote2 trump_vote1 trump_vote2 <fctr> <char> <int> <int> <int> <int> 1: persuadeHarris personality 279 287 241 230 2: persuadeHarris policy 291 293 236 231 3: persuadeTrump personality 277 270 211 211 4: persuadeTrump policy 288 277 217 220 # pre # 249 non harris/trump votes vote_1 N <char> <int> 1: Kamala Harris 1135 2: Donald Trump 905 3: I would not vote, but I could have 79 4: I would not vote out of protest 65 5: Prefer not to say 39 6: I would not vote for reasons outside of my control 13 7: Jill Stein 8 8: Chase Oliver 7 9: Kennedy 4 10: Cornel West 4 11: Robert Kennedy Jr 2 12: RFK 2 13: Robert F. Kennedy 2 14: RFK Jr. 2 15: Peter Sonski 2 16: Robert Kennedy JR 1 17: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 1 18: uncertain 1 19: Kenndey 1 20: Bernie Sanders 1 21: RFK, Jr 1 22: anyone but those two 1 23: Libertarian Candidate 1 24: I don't know yet 1 25: RFK Jr 1 26: Uncertain right now 1 27: I'm still shopping, now that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has dropped out. 1 28: Manchin 1 29: Robert Kennedy 1 30: Absolutely anyone else. 1 31: none of the above 1 32: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1 33: Independent 1 34: Libertarian candidate 1 35: Mitt Romney 1 vote_1 N # post # 230 non harris/trump votes vote_2 N <char> <int> 1: Kamala Harris 1148 2: Donald Trump 911 3: I would not vote, but I could have 73 4: I would not vote out of protest 53 5: Prefer not to say 44 6: Jill Stein 10 7: I would not vote for reasons outside of my control 7 8: Chase Oliver 7 9: Robert Kennedy Jr 3 10: Cornel West 3 11: Kennedy 2 12: RFK 2 13: Robert F. Kennedy 2 14: RFK Jr 2 15: Peter Sonski 2 16: Whomever is the candidate for the Green Party 1 17: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 1 18: kenndy 1 19: Bernie Sanders 1 20: RFK, Jr 1 21: cornel west 1 22: unsure 1 23: Libertarian Candidate 1 24: Not sure 1 25: no 1 26: Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver 1 27: Jasmine Sherman 1 28: Manchin 1 29: Robert Kennedy 1 30: Robert F Kennedy Jr 1 31: Anyone else. Maybe my neighbor's dog. 1 32: none of the above 1 33: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1 34: 1 35: Mitt Romney 1 vote_2 N ``` # Trump vote Recode responses such that if response is 'trump', 1, else 0. `vote_trump_2` is post, `vote_trump_1` is pre ```r # logistic regression > feglm(vote_trump_2 ~ condition * scale(vote_trump_1), data = d3, family = binomial) GLM estimation, family = binomial, Dep. Var.: vote_trump_2 Observations: 2,289 Standard-errors: IID Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -1.403017 0.235233 -5.964375 2.4557e-09 *** conditionpersuadeTrump 1.115540 0.337157 3.308664 9.3742e-04 *** scale(vote_trump_1) 3.754290 0.210031 17.874911 < 2.2e-16 *** conditionpersuadeTrump:scale(vote_trump_1) 0.250103 0.341863 0.731589 4.6442e-01 --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 Log-Likelihood: -233.7 Adj. Pseudo R2: 0.846189 BIC: 498.3 Squared Cor.: 0.911351 # linear probability model > feols(vote_trump_2 ~ condition * scale(vote_trump_1), data = d3) OLS estimation, Dep. Var.: vote_trump_2 Observations: 2,289 Standard-errors: IID Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 0.387511 0.004281 90.516477 < 2.2e-16 *** conditionpersuadeTrump 0.021463 0.006101 3.517747 0.00044372 *** scale(vote_trump_1) 0.464871 0.004254 109.279433 < 2.2e-16 *** conditionpersuadeTrump:scale(vote_trump_1) 0.005603 0.006105 0.917796 0.35882268 --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 RMSE: 0.145738 Adj. R2: 0.911235 ``` # Harris vote Recode responses such that if response is 'harris', 1, else 0. `vote_harris_2` is post, `vote_harris_1` is pre ```r # logistic regression > feglm(vote_harris_2 ~ condition * scale(vote_harris_1), data = d3, family = binomial) GLM estimation, family = binomial, Dep. Var.: vote_harris_2 Observations: 2,289 Standard-errors: IID Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -0.408422 0.195159 -2.09276 0.03637037 * conditionpersuadeHarris 1.656430 0.414548 3.99575 0.00006449 *** scale(vote_harris_1) 3.633363 0.194630 18.66806 < 2.2e-16 *** conditionpersuadeHarris:scale(vote_harris_1) 0.732176 0.416656 1.75727 0.07887246 . --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 Log-Likelihood: -259.9 Adj. Pseudo R2: 0.834284 BIC: 550.8 Squared Cor.: 0.90058 # linear probability > feols(vote_harris_2 ~ condition * scale(vote_harris_1), data = d3) OLS estimation, Dep. Var.: vote_harris_2 Observations: 2,289 Standard-errors: IID Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 0.486391 0.004701 103.475161 < 2.2e-16 *** conditionpersuadeHarris 0.029861 0.006597 4.526238 6.3123e-06 *** scale(vote_harris_1) 0.472606 0.004701 100.529828 < 2.2e-16 *** conditionpersuadeHarris:scale(vote_harris_1) 0.003768 0.006599 0.570974 5.6807e-01 --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 RMSE: 0.157654 Adj. R2: 0.900449 ```