- see [[250513_154015 canada - strategies|canada strategies]] # strategy use "crowd" model: `mean(gpt4.1, deepseekv3-0324)` strategies (see prompts [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IUgFimHZY24hkoMKtoYzeRBJmzSfh5ZXtOz6ydwM43U/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.529uhyfnhdpz)) - baseline prompt (harris/trump study prompt) - generic (don't personalize) - nofacts (don't use facts) - noinstr (don't tell LLMs how to persuade - just persuade however it wants) ![[strategy_use 1.png]] baseline vs noinstr ![[1747798486.png]] correlation between baseline and noinstr ```r Parameter1 | Parameter2 | r | 95% CI | t(25) | p ----------------------------------------------------------------- baseline | noinstr | 0.91 | [0.80, 0.96] | 10.71 | < .001*** ``` ![[1747798862.png]] # lasso ```r # model formula persuasion~active_listening_and_empathy + aggressive_and_explicit_directives + audience_adaptation + build_rapport_and_common_ground + cognitive_elaboration + contrastive_tone2 + encourage_action_with_clear_calls + evidence_or_factbased_arguments + explicit_call_vote + localized_focus + negative_associations + negative_namecalling + negative_tone2 + politeness_and_civil_tone + positive_framing_and_value_alignment + positive_namecalling + positive_tone2 + preemptive_objections + reciprocity_and_mutual_benefit + relatable_hypotheticals + social_proof_and_normative_influence + stimulate_anger + stimulate_enthusiasm + storytelling_and_relatable_anecdotes + transfer_of_association + use_of_negative_testimonials + use_of_positive_testimonials + conditionZ * preZ * (strategy_nofactsZ + strategy_genericZ + strategy_noinstrZ) + accuracyS ``` compare with [[250513_154015 canada - strategies#lasso|canada lasso results]] ![[1747776548.png]] all coefficients below - `b`: lasso coef - `presence`: mean strategy use/presence ```r strategy b presence <char> <num> <num> 1: preZ 17.29355229 NA 2: conditionZ 12.17501893 NA 3: Optimism & value alignment 1.75279043 0.92056185 4: Contrast positives & negatives 1.25382997 0.33120869 5: Relatable hypotheticals 0.76313792 0.43425401 6: Localized focus 0.74994704 0.30169972 7: Highlight own side positives 0.65262406 0.61732767 8: Personalization 0.59309923 0.68106704 9: Positive associations 0.55681410 0.71883853 10: Evidence & facts 0.46117920 0.51463645 11: conditionZ:preZ:strategy_nofactsZ 0.43772285 NA 12: Reciprocity 0.38236143 0.20384797 13: Positive name-calling 0.35628873 0.75590179 14: Negative name-calling 0.30958714 0.11779981 15: preZ:strategy_nofactsZ 0.21285561 NA 16: Build rapport 0.01017216 0.56303116 17: Being pushy 0.00000000 0.04567989 18: Cognitive elaboration 0.00000000 0.45432011 19: conditionZ:preZ:strategy_genericZ 0.00000000 NA 20: conditionZ:preZ:strategy_noinstrZ 0.00000000 NA 21: conditionZ:strategy_genericZ 0.00000000 NA 22: Explicit call to vote 0.00000000 0.12924929 23: Negative associations 0.00000000 0.31314920 24: Highlight opposition negatives 0.00000000 0.01923985 25: Politeness & civility 0.00000000 0.98677998 26: preZ:strategy_genericZ 0.00000000 NA 27: preZ:strategy_noinstrZ 0.00000000 NA 28: Stimulate anger 0.00000000 0.09183192 29: strategy_genericZ 0.00000000 NA 30: strategy_noinstrZ 0.00000000 NA 31: Negative testimonials -0.04559935 0.02289896 32: strategy_nofactsZ -0.04821379 NA 33: conditionZ:strategy_noinstrZ -0.10206487 NA 34: Positive testimonials -0.13061619 0.03399433 35: Social influence -0.25236084 0.18508026 36: Stimulate enthusiasm -0.41778458 0.59926818 37: Emphatic listening -0.45489906 0.76133144 38: accuracyS -0.62143067 NA 39: conditionZ:strategy_nofactsZ -0.71814604 NA 40: Facilitate action -0.79163058 0.39719075 41: Storytelling -1.27169980 0.42481114 42: Preemptive counter-arguments -1.89952118 0.56857885 43: conditionZ:preZ -16.35187862 NA strategy b presence ```