- Title: - Speakers: - [[my mission and story]], [[my raison d'etre]] # Ideas # 5050: Sprinting through the idea maze Wed, 01 Oct 25 · [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] How do we know what problems are important? What are some heuristics? idea maze - all the ideas i could pursue? - how to get idaes - brainstorm crazy new tech - kill crazy new ideas through data - figure out scaling up; who are the customers - understand techno-economics - book to read: power law questions - How important is it for VCs that the stuff we build “captures the market” Seems like all the milestones/plans are generally related to scaling up, suggesting what VCs care about are products/ideas that has the potential to capture markets. Do they fund startups that solve important problems but doesn’t necessarily (have a clear plan to) capture the market? - How do you know which VCs like what ideas/busineses? - Are there databases for kinds of ideas/startups VCs have previously/recently funded? What I personally want to do? My mission and raison d’etre - mission ideas - bring out the best in every person - to make everyone a superhuman - to make everyone have infinite persistence/self-control/persistence - hot take: human innovation is limited not by biology/intelligence etc.; it's limited by the no. of people who are dedicated/persistent, willing to endure failure, and able to keep doing hard things - not how slow or smart we are; but how much we can endure ambiguity, boredom, and setbacks in pursuit of long-term goals (e.g., dyson/edison) - quality vs quantity - i want to solve both: a lot of human beings out there (quantity); and I want each of them to be capable of deep, sustained effort toward meaningful goals (quality). - AI can bring us closer to those goals: by augmenting human focus, providing personalized feedback loops, and scaffolding long-term motivation through adaptive systems that learn alongside us. - so much now is about AGI, making AI more powerful - what about making humans themselves better? use AI to amplify human potential—not replace it. - dogged persistence (dyson, edison, etc.); if only we could make every human being just 1% more persistent. - innovation cannot be left to just a few dedicated people - Martin Luther King Jr: “Almost always, the creative dedicated minority has made the world better” - imagine the majority—or everyone—is dedicated, the world would be much better, much faster - Sir Dave Brailsford, widely known for coaching British cycling teams, articulated the principle of “the aggregation of marginal gains”—the idea that making many small improvements (around 1%) in various aspects of performance, when added together, can lead to significant results. He stated, “The whole principle came from the idea that if you broke down everything you could think of that goes into riding a bike, and then improve it by 1 percent, you will get a significant increase when you put them all together”. - This approach is often conceptualized mathematically: the overall improvement is the product of many small (marginal) advancements **compounded** over time, not a single step change. - “If you break down everything that goes into riding a bicycle and improve it by 1%, you will get a significant overall increase.” - raison d’etre ideas - I want everyone to live to their fullest potential - I want to see the people around me succeed and flourish - I want everyone to always feel motivated to do what matters - I want everyone to be addicted to improving/bettering themselves - I’m always excited/happy when i see people around me succeed/flourish - I’m upset when i see people do things inefficeintly when there are clearly better solutions - I’m upset whenever I see wasted potential/talent - my expeirence in singapore, the army, - what i want to build/do - living to fullest potential means making good decisions, right now - every choice/decision now is one step to a better future, to realizing one’s potential - **rewarding process, rather than outcomes** - **i have papers showing this work; we can get people addicted/motivated to do hard things. but no task management system is built around this idea** - some people are intrinsically rewarded by the process (e.g., edison, dyson) - other people need more extrinsic reward to internalize the value of persistence and bettering themselves - what’s missing - choice data - A/B testing, large-scale experimentation (stuff that makes big tech so big) - collect choice data constantly - A/B testing** within** the person, all day - every decision/choice made should be optimal - a completely new way of thinking task management and prioritization - no more todo lists - no more replanning and reprioritization - no more worrying about whether what you’re doing is aligned with your values/priorities - less stressful - always feel motivated to do what truly matters - not social media style bad engagement - how to get people addicted to bettering themselves and the world - new philosophy/framework for task management - todo list hasn't changed for centuries, and yet the way we work, think, and live has transformed dramatically—it's time our tools evolved too - reinvent this entirely ![[20251001181711.png]] # Questions and follow-up # References # AI summary # 5050: Sprinting through the idea maze Wed, 01 Oct 25 · [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] ### How to Identify Important Problems - How do we know what problems are important? - What are some heuristics for problem identification? - Alex’s core principle: “If you don’t work on important problems, you don’t do important work” - Wish he had internalized this earlier to avoid wasting years on intellectually interesting but unimportant problems ### The Idea Maze Framework - All the ideas you could pursue in your space - How to navigate through potential solutions: - Brainstorm crazy new tech approaches - Kill crazy new ideas through rigorous data analysis - Figure out scaling paths and customer identification - Understand techno-economics thoroughly - Speed is your only advantage as a founder - Sprint down chosen path as fast as possible - When assumptions prove wrong, sprint through ideas to find what works ### Molten Industries Case Study - Navigating Pivots - Kevin and Caleb’s journey through multiple failed approaches: - Direct air carbon capture: Market too dependent on tech company goodwill - Lithium batteries: Couldn’t compete with Chinese manufacturing scale - Cement (liquid phase): Only 10% cost improvement, monopoly market dynamics - Hydrogen via methane pyrolysis: Finally found differentiated technology - Key insight: Solved critical scaling challenge (reactor clogging) in Stanford garage - Eventually pivoted again to graphite as primary business (50-100x price increase over hydrogen) - Lesson: If there’s one believable path to success, there are likely many paths ### Creating Believable Startup Plans - Reverse engineer the outcome you want to achieve - Molten’s planning methodology: - Identify minimum commercial scale (20 tons/day for chemical plants) - Work backwards to demonstration scale (1 ton/day) - Further back to physics de-risking scale (50 kg/day) - Funding rule of thumb: Raise 2x what you need to build hardware - 18-24 months runway + hardware costs + 30% contingency - Planning horizon should match company age - LOIs (Letters of Intent) are storytelling tools - include specifications, volumes, and what triggers actual purchase ### Technology Development Roadmap - Progression from “technology that could win” to “technology scaled and winning” - Study successful companies in your space to understand typical paths - Biotech example progression: - $0.5-3M: In vitro work and preliminary studies - $10M: In vivo data plus IND enabling studies - $20-50M: Phase 1 clinical trials - $50-300M: Phase 2 clinical trials - $200-600M: Phase 3 clinical trials - Platform vs asset companies have different trajectories and team changes ### Customer Discovery Is Critical - Most successful portfolio companies learn what to build from customers - Nabla Biotechnology example: Reached out to 27 companies, got 5 paid pilots within a month - Revealed non-obvious industry bottlenecks not apparent from academic papers - Customer conversations led to breakthrough insight: making membrane proteins soluble for high-throughput testing - Best practices for customer calls: - Build relationships first (warm intros, thank connectors) - Ask broad questions: “What are your top three problems?” - Spend 90% listening, 10% sharing your solution in context of their problems - Use ChatGPT to prepare meeting dossiers ### Fundraising and Board Dynamics - VCs typically support you through pivots once invested (incentives align) - Board control typically lost at Series A/B (2 common seats vs 2+ preferred seats) - Dilution vs board control are different considerations - Down rounds can be catastrophic - employees may leave thinking company is failing - Choose VCs who won’t “cross names off lists” when companies struggle - Message pivots with clear plans to fix problems and urgency in execution ### Your Personal Mission and Vision - Mission ideas: - Bring out the best in every person - Make everyone a superhuman - Give everyone infinite persistence/self-control - Innovation cannot be left to just a few dedicated people - Core philosophy: Rewarding process rather than outcomes - Have papers showing this works for motivation - No current task management system built around this principle - What’s missing in current solutions: - Choice data collection - A/B testing within individuals throughout the day - Optimal decision-making for every choice - Vision for new task management approach: - No more traditional todo lists - No more constant replanning and reprioritization - Less stress, always motivated to do what matters - Get people addicted to bettering themselves (not social media engagement) ### Key Questions for Further Exploration - How important is “market capture” vs solving important problems for VC funding? - How to identify which VCs fund specific types of ideas/businesses? - Are there databases of VC investment patterns by sector/stage? # Slides ![[Idea_Maze.pdf]]