# Idea People forget about the base rate (or [[prior]]) when making judgments. For example, they don't rationally use [[Bayes theorem]] to determine the correct response. Among the 1000 people that participated in the study, there were 995 nurses and 5 doctors. John is randomly chosen participant in this research. He is 34 years old. He lives in a nice house in a fancy neighborhood. He expresses himself nicely and is very interested in politics. He invests a lot of time in his career. Which is more likely? - (a) John is a nurse. (correct) - (b) John is a doctor. # References - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/base-rate-fallacy.asp - https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/base-rate-fallacy/ - [[Erceg 2020 reflection on CRT]]